Humbowo Hutsva Hunochinja Manzwisisiro Atinoita Inflation uye Monetary Policy

Table of Links

Abstract

1 Nhanganyaya

2 Nharo dzeMasvomhu

3 Rondedzera uye Kufanoona

4 Calvo Framework uye 4.1 Dambudziko reMhuri

4.2 Zvaunofarira

4.3 Mumba Equilibrium Conditions

4.4 Mutengo-Kuisa Dambudziko

4.5 Nominal Equilibrium Conditions

4.6 Chaiyo Equilibrium Mamiriro uye 4.7 Shocks

4.8 Recursive Equilibrium

5 Magadzirirwo Aripo

5.1 Singular Phillips Curve

5.2 Kushingirira uye Polisi Mapuzzle

5.3 Mienzaniso miviri yekuenzanisa

5.4 Lucas Critique

6 Stochastic Equilibrium uye 6.1 Ergodic Theory uye Random Dynamical Systems.

6.2 Equilibrium Kuvaka

6.3 Mabhuku Kuenzanisa

6.4 Equilibrium Analysis

7 General Linearized Phillips Curve

7.1 Slope Coefficients

7.2 Error Coefficients

8 Zviripo Zvabuda uye 8.1 Mibairo mikuru

8.2 Humbowo Hunokosha

8.3 Hurukuro

9 Bifurcation Ongororo

9.1 Analytic Aspects

9.2 Algebraic Aspects (I) Singularities uye Makavha

9.3 Algebraic Aspects (II) Homology

9.4 Algebraic Aspects (III) Zvirongwa

9.5 Tsanangudzo Dzakawanda Dzehupfumi

10 Econometric uye Theoretical Implications uye 10.1 Kuzivikanwa uye Trade-offs.

10.2 Econometric Duality

10.3 Coefficient Properties

10.4 Kududzirwa kweMicroeconomic

11 Policy Rule

12 Mhedziso uye Manongedzero

Appendices

Humbowo hweTheorem 2 neA.1 Humbowo hweChikamu (i)

A.2 Maitiro e ∆

A.3 Chikamu Cheuchapupu (iii)

B Humbowo kubva muChikamu 4 uye B.1 Individual Product Demand (4.2)

B.2 Flexible Price Equilibrium neZINSS (4.4)

B.3 Kuparadzirwa Kwemutengo (4.5)

B.4 Kuderedza Mutengo (4.6) uye (10.4)

B.5 Kubatanidza (4.8)

C Humbowo kubva muChikamu 5, uye C.1 Mapikicha, Policy uye Kushingirira

C.2 Kuwedzera Hapana Kuramba

D Stochastic Equilibrium uye D.1 Non-Stochastic Equilibrium

D.2 Pundutso uye Kukura Kwenguva refu

E Slopes uye Eigenvalues uye E.1 Slope Coefficients

E.2 Linearized DSGE Solution

E.3 Eigenvalue Conditions

E.4 Rouche's Theorem Conditions

F Abstract Algebra uye F.1 Homology Mapoka

F.2 Basic Categories

F.3 De Rham Cohomology

F.4 Marginal Costs uye Inflation

G Kuwedzera Keynesian Models uye G.1 Taylor Pricing

G.2 Calvo Wage Phillips Curve

G.3 Zvisina kujairika Policy Settings

H Empirical Robustness uye H.1 Parameter Selection

H.2 Phillips Curve

Ini Humwe Humbowo uye I.1 Zvimwe Zvimiro Zvimiro

I.2 Lucas Critique

I.3 Trend Inflation Volatility

1 Nhanganyaya

Kunzwisisa kweEmpirical mune macroeconomics kwaita nhanho huru mumakore achangopfuura. Boka rinokura rehumbowo husina modhi hunoratidza kuti mutengo uye kuomarara kwemuhoro zviri kwese. Izvi zvinotsigirwa nezvakawanda zve micro-econometric zvidzidzo zvekugadzirisa mutengo zvakadai saAlvarez et al. [2006], Dhyne et al. [2006], Gagnon [2009], Klenow naMalin [2010], Vermeulen et al. [2012], Berardi et al. [2015] naKehoe naMidrigan [2015], [1] nepo mubairo wega wega uchichinja zvishoma nezvishoma nekuramba kuderedzwa kwemazita, sezvakawanikwa semuenzaniso naFehr naGoette [2005], Dickens et al. [2007], Barattieri et al. [2014], Kaur [2019] uye Grigsby et al. [2021]. Kuedza kwakasiyana-siyana kwechisikigo kunoratidza kuti kukanganiswa kwekuda kwehuwandu kwakakosha zvakanyanya kukosha kwebhizinesi kutenderera (ona Auerbach naGorodnichenko [2012b], Auerbach naGorodnichenko [2012a], Auerbach naGorodnichenko [2013], [Ac2013]. et al. [2014], Mian naSufi [2014], Chodorow-Reich naKarabarbounis [2016] uye ChodorowReich et al. Kukatyamadzwa kwegwaro remari kunogona kuve nekukanganisa kukuru uye pamwe kwenguva refu pane zvinobuda- (ona Christiano et al. [1999], Romer naRomer [2004], Velde [2009], Gertler naKaradi [2015], Jordà et al. [2020a], Jordà et al. [2020b], uye Palma [2022]).

Iri basa rakatsigira iyo New Neo-Classical Synthesis yakakurukurwa muna Goodfriend and King [1997] uye Snowdon naVane [2005]. Pfungwa iyi ndeyekuongorora hurongwa hwemari nekuwedzera mitengo inonamira kana gadziriso yekukakavadzana mune imwe nzira yakajairwa mamodheru kubva kuReal Business Cycle (RBC) tsika. Chinangwa chave chiri chekugadzira inovimbika midiki-yakavambwa inokwana kune yakaunganidzwa kudiwa uye aggregate ekupa equations yeOld Keynesian economics.

Muchinangwa ichi mabhuku kusvika pari zvino akundikana. Inflation, chokwadi shanduko yakakosha muNew Keynesian economics, inotarisisa kumberi zvakanyanya, chokwadi pasi peiyo bhenji modhi haina kushingirira kwemukati uye haizivikanwe pasina zvachose ad hoc kuvhunduka. Uyezve, haparatidzike kutengeserana kwechinguvana pakati pekukwira kwemitengo nemabasa kana kudzikamiswa kunodaidzwa kuti Divine Coincidence naBlanchard naGalí [2007] kuitira kuti mabhanga epakati agone "kunatsa" kubvisa chero kusachinja kusingashande.[2] Ini ndinoratidza kuti zvese izvi zvakawanikwa ingano yemhinduro dzisiridzo kune benchmark Calvo modhi. Basa rebepa iri nderekuvaka yakapusa inogoneka kuumbwa kweNew Keynesian economics iyo inogona kushanda sepuratifomu yeramangwana redzidziso, empirical uye masvomhu basa.

Bepa rine mabasa matatu anopindirana. Yekutanga ndeye kuburitsa masimba eiyo New Keynesian Phillips curve. Chechipiri ndechekudhirowa mhedzisiro yayo huru ye econometric uye theoretical rationale. Chekupedzisira, ini ndichaongorora kana uye pasi pemamiriro api mhinduro kuDSGE iripo uye nekupa chaiyo parametric mhinduro dzeiyo bhenji modhi.

Iyo bhenji New Keynesian Phillips yakawanikwa nekuenzanisa iyo Calvo modhi paZINSS haimiriri zvimiro zveiyo yepasi stochastic system zvisinei madiki anovhunduka. Kunze kwemutengo wekuparadzira dynamics paZINSS vari kumberi-kutarisa kune ese maodha ekufungidzira. Kusiyana neizvi, iyo yepasi isiri-mutsara sisitimu inoshingirira ine mukana mumwe, ine lags yeinflation uye kuvhunduka mazwi. Zvave kutozivikanwa kuti hybrid system ine chekuita kana paine isiri-zero trend inflation- (ona Damjanovic and Nolan [2010], Coibion and Gorodnichenko [2011], Ascari and Sbordone [2014] and Kurozumi and Van Zandweghe [2017] and Qureshi uye Ahmad [2021]). Izvi zvinogona kugadzirwa seNon-Stochastic Bifurcation nekutarisa miganhu yemutsara wekufungidzira sezvo inflation ichienda ku zero. Ini ndinoratidza Stochastic Bifurcation nekuratidza kuti kana inflation ichinyatso zero yakavakidzana stochastic masisitimu ane yakaenzana dynamic properties, saka trend inflation inotsanangura maitiro akatenderedza ZINSS.

Mhinduro chaiyo inoda kumashure ekutsiva matanho, kunova ndiko kunoonekwa mazwi eku lag. Musiyano pakati pezvirongwa zviviri izvi unonzi wallcrossing singularity. Zvekare, muganho uri pakati pezvigadziriso zviviri zvemuenzaniso webhenji inzvimbo ine mativi maviri ane madziro ane dimensional anopinda mugomba rine mativi matatu. Zvisina kurongeka, inoumbwa nekuenzanisa matanho akasiyana pakati pemhinduro mbiri uye kubatanidza. Rusvingo ndiko kuenzana kweinflation kunofanirwa kuisa hupfumi mukati mehumwe huso. Chikamu chechipiri ndeche kuenzana kunobatanidza inflation, yakarembera uye iripo mariri, zvichiratidza danho rekudzokera kumashure rinoshaikwa paZINSS. Inoratidza iyo yepakati-temporal inotsiva chinangwa chiripo pasi pekugadzirisa kwakadzikama uye nekudaro shanduko yemuchina wekufambisa mari. Inosuma chiteshi chemutengo muPhillips curve, saka Central Bank kana mamiriro emari anokanganisa zvakananga sarudzo dzemitengo yemafemu. Dimension yechitatu yegomba (yemukati) inomiririra kudzimwa kwekuda kuvhundutsa nekusarira kwayo.

Shanduko idzi dzinoita sedzinokodzera humbowo hwakasiyana-siyana huripo. Barth III naRamey [2001], Gaiotti naSecchi [2006] uye Chowdhury et al. [2006] inopa tsigiro inokatyamadza kune inodhura chiteshi chegwaro remari. Aya masimba anoita seakanyanya kusimba kune mafemu ari pasi pekunetsekana kwemari maererano naAntoun de Almeida [2015], Gilchrist et al. [2017], Meinen naRoehe [2018], Palmén [2020], Abbate et al. [2023] uye Montero uye Urtasun [2021]. Mhedzisiro pane coefficients yePhillips curve inoshamisa. Kudaira kweinflation kune yakabuda gap inodonha, kazhinji kubva padhuze kuenda kune imwe kusvika kutenderedza zero. Iko kuderera kwe inflation coefficient inogara yakakura kudarika iyo inotarisirwa kuwedzera. Izvi mhedzisiro zvinoenderana neazvino empirical fungidziro dzinosanganisira Fuhrer [2006], Mavroeidis et al. [2014], Bhora naMazumder [2020], Hindrayanto et al. [2019], Bobeica naJarociński [2019], Hooper et al. [2020], Zobl naErtl [2021] uye Bhora naMazumder [2021]. [5]

Kuongorora kwese kunotsigirwa nedzidziso yakasimba ye stochastic equilibrium yakabva muergodic theory, bazi remasvomhu rine chekuita nemaitiro enguva refu ezvimiro zvesimba. A stochastic equilibrium ndiyo mamiriro ehupfumi nhasi izvo zvinoreva kuti mukana wechero chiitiko chemangwana wakaenzana neavhareji yenguva refu (nguva). Sezvineiwo, ini ndinokwanisa kugadzira iyi kuenzanisa zvakajeka.

Mabhuku makuru aripo mune zvehupfumi uye zvinoenderana nedzidziso dzinoshandisa dzidziso ye ergodic maitiro kuratidza kuvepo uye kazhinji kusarudzika zvakare, yekuenzana kwese (ona semuenzaniso Stokey [1989], Hopenhayn [1992], Hopenhayn naPrescott [1992], Stachurski [ 2002], Li and Stachurski [2014], Kamihigashi and Stachurski [2016], Brumm and said. Pohl nevamwe [2023]). Zvese izvi zvabuda zvinongoperera kumhando diki dzisina zvimiro, senge endogenous capital uye kuunganidzwa kwevashandi kana kuomarara kwezita, zvechido chikuru kune vakashandiswa macroeconomists.[6] Iri bepa ndiro rekutanga kunyatsotsanangura mamiriro ekuenzanisa kwenguva refu kweiyo nonlinear stochastic modhi isina yakavharwa fomu mhinduro, mune zvinosiyana zvekufarira kwehupfumi nekukurumidza. Hapana akataura nezvekutsoropodza mukana wekuti kana modhi ikasasangana nemamwe mamiriro haina mhinduro.

Ini ndinopa yakakura-yakasiyana kuenzanisa statics pasi pefungidziro dzisina simba. Kusiyana nemhedzisiro yapfuura, inotsamira pazvirambidzo zvepasirese, mugodhi unowedzera kuenzana kwe stochastic izvo zvinonditendera kuti nditore hunhu hwepasi rose kubva kumidziyo yenzvimbo yenzvimbo yakadzikama.[7] Zvakare, ini ndinokwanisa kuita zviyedzo zvitsva, ndichienzanisa chero stochastic yakatsiga mamiriro neayo asiri-stochastic mumwe wake. Kukosha kwayo kwemasvomhu kunotariswa muchikamu chinotevera. Kuwedzera kufambira mberi munharaunda iyi kunogona kuuya sechipo chehukama hwakasimba nemasvomhu.

Macroeconomists vagara vachiziva kuti mafungidziro anotorwa munzvimbo dzisina kusimba anogona kunge asina chokwadi kana kumiririra zvine simba, kunyanya kana uchifunga nezvemisika yemari uye njodzi premia. Sezvo Coeurdacier et al. [2011] naJuillard [2011] zvave zvakajairika kusanganisa mhedzisiro yemhando yepamusoro yekutsauka mazwi kana uchiverenga kuenzana kubva kune izvo zvinokanganisa zvinoongororwa. Chinonyanya kutariswa chave chiri pamisika yemari uye mafambiro enjodzi premia kunyanya. Ascari et al. [2018b] ndiyo inonyanya kuzivikanwa New Keynesian kusvika zvino. Pfungwa ye stochastic equilibrium pano inogadzirisa nekujekesa pfungwa idzi.

Stochastic equilibrium inoumba tsananguro izere ingangoitika yehupfumi. Izvi zvinovapa iyo yemukati yakasarudzika chivakwa kune masisitimu anofambiswa nekukatyamara kunoramba kuchiitika. Izvi zvinotambanudzira kune nzira yeramangwana, inofambirana netsanangudzo yekudzokorora kuenzana mune yakapfuura New Keynesian economics uye isingaperi nguva mhinduro ye mean-munda mutambo neruzha rwakajairika mumasvomhu. Ini zvakare ndinoratidza yakaenzana magumo dimensional state nzvimbo fomu iripo yebenchmark New Keynesian modhi, inofananidzwa netsananguro dzakapfuura kubva kukirasi yehupfumi (ona Prescott naMehra [1980] uye Mehra [2006]). Iyi tekinoroji yakakosha pakuongorora pano uye inosungirwa kuve nekushandisa kwakakura.

Ichi chinokatyamadza mhedzisiro inouya zvakadaro nehurukuro ine simba. Mamodheru ayo macroeconomists aimbofunga kuti ane akawanda equilibria chokwadi haana. Kunyanya yekirasi yakajairwa yeDSGE modhi, kana iyo inomisikidza kukosha kweiyo mutsara fungidziro yakatenderedza stochastic equilibrium isingaverengeke, chiri kunyatsoitika ndechekuti zvinotarisirwa zveimwe kana kupfuura yeanotarisa-mberi akasiyana mune yepasi isiri-mutsara modhi. iri kuputika. Izvi zvinodaro nekuti iyo yepasi optimization ichaputika uye hutano huchadonha pese apo modhi inotarisirwa kusvika kune imwe yemiganhu. Iyi poindi inova pachena kana paine eigenvalues yakawandisa kunze kwedenderedzwa reyuniti uye shanduko yehurumende inotyaira kuvhuvhuta. Muchokwadi, ichi ndicho chete chipingamupinyi chemhinduro yeCalvo modhi yakatenderedza ZINSS, ichipidigura huchenjeri hwazvino. Mumamiriro ezvinhu aya tinofanira kufunga nezve modhi yeDSGE seisina kutsanangurwa zvisizvo, nenzira imwechete iyo vezveupfumi vanoona kuwirirana pakati pezvisizvo zvakasiyana-siyana sezvekunyepa.[8]

Mhedzisiro yacho inodudzira zvakare zvinozivikanwa zveBlanchard naKahn [1980] eigenvalue mamiriro. Chinodiwa chekuvapo kwemhinduro kune isiri-mutsara modhi ndiyo yakasarudzika mamiriro akaongororwa akatenderedza stochastic steady state. Maitiro angu anoita generalizes aripo linearization matekiniki. Iyo isiri-stochastic linear approximation ndiyo muganhu weiyo stochastic approximation sezvo kuvhunduka kunova kudiki. Naizvozvo huripo mutsara matekiniki akajairwa (kure kubva kune bifurcation mapoinzi) akarurama, achisimbisa iripo intuition kubva kwakasiyana asymptotic kuyedza. Kure kubva pamuganho mudiki weruzha, iyo stochastic linear approximation inoratidzira stochastic coefficients. Izvi zvinodaro nekuti inotorwa pa stochastic steady state inoratidza zvinotarisirwa zveasiri-mutsara mabasa. Izvi zvinogadzira matsva ehunyanzvi matambudziko, andinokurukura. Kureruka uye kufananidzwa nebasa rakapfuura zvinokurudzira kutarisa padiki diki miganhu, muchikamu chehuwandu.

Kusiyana nemaonero azvino, Rotemberg neCalvo hazvina kumbobvira zvakaenzana mukuenzana kwe stochastic. Muchokwadi, hapana marongero eiyo yakajairwa mutemo mutemo apo ese ari maviri. Izvi zvinodaro nekuti Rotemberg haina kukanganiswa nehumwe hunokanganisa Calvo. Kuenzana uku ndiko kwakava kukurudzira kwekushandisa mitengo yeRotemberg, kunyange hazvo, zvichireva kuti mhedzisiro inotorwa pasi peiyo bhenjimark iripo inogona kutariswa seine chekuita neRotemberg modhi. Izvi, pane mhedzisiro yematemu epamusoro, ndiyo ingangodaro tsananguro yekusiyana kwekuita pasi penzira dzekugadzirisa dzepasi rose (ona Leith naLiu [2016]).

A double limit system inobuda zvichienderana nekuti kuparadzirwa kwemutengo kunoonekwa sekutanga kana kwechipiri kurongeka kwakatenderedza ZINSS. Iyi mamiriro anonzi polydromy. Chekutanga kurongeka mutengo dispersion (∆) inoratidza kusachinja-chinja kwemitemo. Hutongi husina kushanduka hunobuda kana avhareji yekuvhunduka idiki kwazvo. Zvakawanda zvakafara, ∆ inogona kutariswa sekuoma chaiko- mupfungwa yeBhora naRomer [1990]- mhedzisiro yekuoma kwemitengo pahupfumi hunoshanduka. Izvi zvinoratidza kuti kuomarara kwezita chete kungave kwakakwanira kuenzanisira inflation dynamics, kupidigura ikozvino yemafungiro kutanga neBhora naRomer [1991].

Kana isu takagadzirira kutarisa munharaunda yeZINSS saka mukana wemaitiro angu pamusoro pekukwira kwemitengo ndeyekuti ndinogona kuderedza kana kubvisa zvachose basa rekupararira kwemutengo. Pazvinhu zvine chekuita nehunyanzvi, kupararira kwemitengo kuri kuwedzera uye kuderera mukukwira kwemitengo. Stochastic equilibrium inowedzera dambudziko, inopindirana nekufungidzira kwemaitiro kubva kuDSGE modhi (ona Ascari et al. [2018b]). Zvisinei, humbowo hwehupfumi hunowanzoratidza hukama hwakanyanya kuderedzwa pakati pekupararira kwemutengo uye inflation pamazinga akaderera akanaka (ona Gagnon [2009], Coibion et al. [2015], Wulfsberg [2016], Nakamura et al. [2018], Alvarez et al. al. [2018], Sheremirov [2020], Anayi et al. [2022] uye Adam et al. Zvakawanda, zvinoenderana nemhedzisiro iyi, kana kupararira kwemutengo kuchiitika mumutsara wekufungidzira kwakatenderedza ZINSS inozvimiririra kubva kune yekutanga kurongeka dynamics yeinflation. Uyezve, iyo fungidziro ichave isingatarisire mberi kupfuura yayo yakanaka maitiro ekuwedzera inflation (Ascari naSbordone [2014]). Mabhuku madiki akagadzirwa anotarisa mawedzero emhando yebhenji inopa fungidziro yakaderera maererano nekupararira kwezita (ona Bakhshi et al. [2007], Kurozumi [2016], Kurozumi naVan Zandweghe [2016] naHahn [2022]). Pamwe chete vanogona kupa chikonzero chekufunga nezve inflation iri pedyo ne zero pane semuenzaniso weCentral Bank inflation target yezvikamu zviviri kubva muzana, pasina kushandisa pfungwa dzisiri dzechokwadi, dzakaita sekuzara kwemitengo yezita.[9]

Ongororo apa inoburitsa zvakadzama econometric zvinoreva. Chekutanga, chimiro chechimiro uye zvinodakatyamadzwa zvinoonekwa nemutemo wakajairwa pasi pefungidziro isina maturo yekuti modhi yacho ndeyechokwadi.[10] Izvi zvinogadzirisa kusawirirana kwakakosha muhurongwa huripo. Kuwedzera kushingirira uye dhigirii rekuenzanisa mune coefficients kunofanirwa kuvandudza madiki emuenzaniso zvivakwa.

Basa riripo rinorerekera divi rimwe chete. Pasi peiyo null hypothesis yekuti modhi ndeyechokwadi, pane Econometric Duality; kuenzana pakati pezvipingamupinyi pakugadzirisa patsva kwefemu inomiririra uye zvirambidzo zvenhamba pane econometrician iri kutsvaga kuenderana nePhillips curve modhi kune data. Stochastic equilibrium inopa mitsva yekuzivikanwa. Iyi dzidziso itsva inovimbisa matambudziko matsva ane hukama hwakasimba pakati pemacroeconomic modeling uye econometric theory.

Iro bepa rinotakura mhedzisiro ine simba kune ese maficha eLucas Jr [1976] critique. Kune rimwe divi, yekutanga kuenzana mhedzisiro yakaipa. MaKeynesian mamodheru ane akarembera akasiyana anoratidza kudzikamisa optimization iyo neoclassical framework haina. Nekune rumwe rutivi, pfungwa yekutengeserana-kure uko kushambadzira kwemari kunokonzera kufamba kwakashata muPhillips curve schedule inoburitswa nekuongororwa kweiyo coefficients. Muchokwadi, ini ndinoratidza kuti mutengo webenchmark Phillips curve ndeyekunyepedzera mupfungwa yekuti mutsetse wayo uri zero pane yakajairwa parametization uye inogona kuve isina kunaka, inoenderana neshoko rebepa rake. Dambudziko riri panzira yekutapurirana iyo iri inter-temporal zvachose.

Ichi ndicho musimboti weOutput Neutrality. Kana masimba epakati penguva achidonha, inflation yemazuva ano- sezvakarongwa nemitengo yakakwana- inotsamira chete pane zvakapfuura uye zvazvino zvinokurudzira mitengo, zvinoratidzwa mukunonoka uye tarisiro yekutungamira kwekukwira kwemitengo. Zvechokwadi, pasi pemuganhu uyu, inflation yakaenzana nehafu yekusarira kwayo uye hafu yeramangwana rayo. Aya maficha anobvumirana nemitengo yaTaylor, uko inflation inotarwa neavhareji yakayereswa yeakarembera uye yeramangwana makosi, zvakare nehuremu hwakaenzana pakukwira kwemitengo kwapfuura uye kweramangwana. Zvinoenderana nekubuda kwazvakarerekera, iwo coefficients pamarigineti mutengo (kana goho rekubuda) rinosvika zero, sepasi peCalvo. Izvi zvinogadzira bhiriji rakasimba pakati pemicroeconomics uye macroeconomics, pamwe nekufanana kwakajeka pakati pemamwe mamodheru.

Zvakare, iyo inotariswa pamepu pakati peiyo micro uye macroeconomic maitiro inodzokera kumberi muchimiro cheiyo priori bifurcation ongororo. Izvi zvinoreva kuti chimiro chekare changa chisiri kunyatso ratidza ma microfoundations, anoratidzwa mukugadzirisa zvakare zvipingamupinyi. Chekupedzisira, isu tinogona kuona zviitiko zvekusavapo kuburikidza neiyi lenzi, sezvavanoreva zvipingamupinyi zvisingaite pakati peiyo microeconomic uye macroeconomic inference.

Kuparara kweDivine Coincidence kunounza zvikomborero zvakasiyana-siyana. Inotyora kuvimba kwekare pane zvisizvo zvinokatyamadza zvinokatyamadza kuchinja Phillips curve (ona Le et al. [2011] uye Fratto naUhlig [2020]). Izvi zvinokatyamadza zvinorambwa zvakanyanya setsananguro dzinovimbika dzekukwira kwemitengo nekuputika kwakaitwa neongororo dzenyanzvi dzezvehupfumi (ona Vaitilingum [25 Kukadzi, 2022]), pamwe chete nebumbiro remitemo remitengo yekudzora mitengo.[11] Ichabvumira macroeconomists kudzivirira kudaidza Inoshanda Lower Bound (ELB) pamitengo yezita remubereko kuti igadzire mapolicy trade-offs. Izvi zvinonyanya kukosha zvichitevera kuwedzera kuchangobva kuitika kwemhindu muhupfumi hukuru. Zvinotyisa neumbowo hunoratidza kuti ELB yanga isingakoshe mumakore gumi apfuura nekuti Quantitative Easing (QE) yairatidza kutevedzera kuderedzwa kwemari yemuberero, hukama hwehupfumi hwemacroeconomic hwakaonekwa hwakagadzikana uye deflation yaive isipo kunyanya kuUK, [12] (ona semuenzaniso Wu uye Xia [2016], Dahlhaus et al., Kuttner [2018], Dell'Ariccia et al. [2018], Wu [2018], Matousek et al. [2019], Debortoli et al Williams [2021] (zvimiro) [13] Kuzvimirira kweCentral Bank zvirokwazvo kwave kuri kumwe kwekuyedza kwakabudirira kwazvo munhoroondo yehupfumi (ona semuenzaniso Alesina naSummers [1993], Cukierman et al. [1993], Bernanke et al. [1999] Acemoglu et al Garriga naRodriguez [2020] Yave nguva yemhando yepamusoro yakapihwa kutungamira nhaurirano dzezuva nezuva .

Chekupedzisira, pane zvakakosha zvinokonzeresa mukana weiyo isingashande mutemo. Kubva pakuona kwe microeconomic inogona kuonekwa sekuratidza kugadzikana kwehuwandu hwekuenzanisa pasina kukanganiswa kwehuwandu, kurwisana nekuoma kwemitengo yega. Izvi zvinogona kubatsira kutsanangura kuti sei vagadziri vemitemo vagara vasina hanya nekuvhunduka kwemicroeconomic.

Pamusoro pemacroeconomic ledger ine zvazvinoreva kune zvese zvazvino uye zvenhoroondo bumbiro remitemo. Macroeconomists vanowanzoona kugadzikana kuburikidza neprism yeTaylor musimboti- uyo unotaura kuti inflation inodzorwa nekusimudza mubereko chaiwo mukupindura kutsauka kweinflation kubva pakuenzanisa. Mutemo wepolicy wakawanikwa pano unoreva kuti hazvibviri kukurumidza kugadzirisa mhindu yekudzora inflation. Izvi zvinoda kuchinja zvishoma nezvishoma kwemaitiro emitemo. Izvi zvinoenderana neCentral Bank tsika yakanakisa inonzi "coarse-tuning" (Lindbeck [1992]). Inowanzo shandiswa kuburikidza neInflation Forecast-Targeting (Kohn [2009], Svensson [2010] uye Svensson [2012]). Apa ndipo panogadziridzwa mitemo nefungidziro yeramangwana kuti ibudise nzira inodiwa inotarisirwa yekukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu uye kuita chaiko, kunoenderana nekugadzikana kwepakati. Izvi zvinowanzotsanangurwa sekufembera inflation uye goho rekubuda rakakwana pedyo nekunangwa mushure menguva yemwedzi gumi nemasere kusvika kumakore matatu.[14]

Chekupedzisira, mhedzisiro yepolicy yakakosha pakunzwisisa kwedu nhoroondo yehupfumi. Zvinobatsira kururamisa kupona kwehurumende dzisina kupindira dzakaita seGold Standard apo "Mitemo yeMutambo" yairambidza kushingaira kudzikamisa mutemo (ona Barsky and Summers [1988], Bayoumi et al. [1997] uye Bordo naSchwartz [2009] ) Chechipiri, zvinofanirwa kuita kuti zvive nyore kuongorora fungidziro senge kusamira kwenyika (Hansen [1939] uye Summers [2015]) izvo zvinoda misungo yenguva refu yemvura isingagoneke mukumisikidzwa kwemumiriri aripo. Chekupedzisira, inofanirwa kutsigira inovimbika kuwanda ongororo yemabhenefiti emazuva ano macroeconomic manejimendi.

Chikamu chinotevera chinopa tsananguro yakadzama yehumbowo matekiniki akakodzera vateereri vehunyanzvi. Inoisawo mapepa mukati mezvinyorwa zvemasvomhu. Nyangwe, yakagadzirwa kuti iwanikwe, inogona kutsikwa nevaverengi vasinganyanyi kuda masvomhu.

[1] Izvi ndezvechokwadiwo pamitengo yepamhepo, (ona Cavallo naRigobon [2016], Cavallo [2017], Gorodnichenko naTalavera [2017], Gorodnichenko et al. [2018] uye Cavallo [2018]).

[2] Izwi iri rinowanzo kutaurwa kuna Walter Heller, Chief Economic Adviser kuMutungamiri Kennedy (ona semuenzaniso http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/referenceentries/40422478/fine-tuning-1960s-economics). Iyo yaireva pakutanga kune zvemari mutemo mune "Old Keynesian" setup. Kusava nechokwadi nezvepfungwa iyi kwainyanya kupikisa mari kune echinyakare Keynesian macroeconomics, ona semuenzaniso Friedman [1968] uye Snowdon naVane [2005].

[3] Pamberi penguva yekutsiva pane tsigiro yakakura yemubatanidzwa wenguva-kati wekuda equation mune zvese zvinotendwa uye zvinoratidzwa zvaunofarira (ona Coibion et al. [2023], Dräger na Nghiem [2021], Duca-Radu et. al. [2021]), pamwe nekukurukurirana kweuchapupu hwekare hwe microeconometric muAppendix H.1.

[4] Hapana chimwe chezvinyorwa zvinofananidzwa zvakananga nemuenzaniso wezvinyorwa, izvo zvinosimbisa kukosha kwekufungidzira kwemaitiro, kunyange, Fuhrer [2006] ndiyo iri pedyo. Vazhinji vanoshandisa urovha pane kuburitsa gap sechinhu chinomanikidza. Izvi zvine dzinza rekutanga rinodzokera kuPhillips [1958] uye Phelps [1968]. Inofarirwa sezvo paine data iri nani. Iwo maviri anogona kubatanidzwa kuburikidza nemutemo waOkun- hukama hwebhizinesi pakati pekushaikwa kwemabasa uye kubuda kwemaitiro, ayo anoita seakasimba empirically (Ball et al. [2013]). Zvakangodaro, inoramba iri pamberi pekutora uye kuyedza micro-yakavambwa muhoro Phillips curves.

[5] Zvizhinji zvezvidzidzo izvi zvinokwanisa kuratidza hukama hwakagadzikana munguva pfupi yapfuura, pasinei nekushanduka kwemaitiro uye migumisiro yematambudziko emari achangopfuura (onawo Stock and Watson [2020] uye Candia et al. [2021]). Kuwedzera kweinflation kuenderera mberi kwakasimba kune zvakasiyana-siyana zvekuunganidza, hurumende yehurumende uye fungidziro inonzwisisika pamusoro pemaitiro mune mamwe macroeconomic variables, nokuda kweuchapupu hunobvunza semuenzaniso Clark [2006], Altissimo et al. [2009], Vaona and Ascari [2012]; O'Reilly naWhelan [2005], Beechey naÖsterholm [2012], Gerlach naTillmann [2012]; Cogley naSargent [2002], Stock uye Watson [2016] uye Kejriwal [2020].

[6] Mhedzisiro yemubereko wakanyanya kushandiswa ine chekuita neKrusell naSmith [1998] bhenji modhi yekuunganidza mari pasi pemisika isina kukwana uye nengozi yakaunganidzwa, seCao [2020] naPröhl [2023]. Nekudaro, izvi zvine mwero wekuitika (uye nekudaro hausi humbowo huzere hwekuvapo).

[7] Chinyorwa chemonotone comparative statics chakagadzirwa kutenderera Milgrom naRoberts [1994], Milgrom naShannon [1994], Milgrom naSegal [2002] uye Athey [2002]. Munguva pfupi yapfuura, mamiriro ekutenderera ave akakurumbira achitevera Acemoglu naJensen [2013] naJensen [2018]. Muchokwadi, kana iyo stochastic equilibrium yave yatorwa matanho anotevera anowanzo kuve akareruka zvakanyanya pane izvi zvabuda kana kuwedzera kwazvino, nevimbiso dzekushandisa kune yakakura seti yemamodheru.

[8] Bvunza Kennedy [2003] yehurukuro ine njere, uye Hamilton [1995] yehunyanzvi kutsanangurwa. Granger naNewbold [1974] naPhillips [1986] mapepa ekutanga ane mukurumbira.

[9] Zvinogoneka kubvisa kukanganisa kwekupararira kwemitengo pakuchinja kwemitengo yepakati nekufungidzira kuti basa rakasimba-chaiyo (ona Coibion naGorodnichenko [2008] naEggertsson na Singh [2019]). Ini ndinoona iyi mhedzisiro inobatsira kune theoretical expositions, kunyangwe isiri kunyatsogutsikana. Zvisinei, hazvigadzirise kukanganisa kwehupfumi pahutano hwevatengi. Uyezve, kupararira kwemazita kwaizodzoka kana kuomarara kwemubairo kwakaverengerwa mufashoni yeCalvo. Chekupedzisira, zvishandiswa, mubatanidzwa kana mushandirapamwe wepasi uye tekinoroji yechinangwa chakajairika seIT, zvekufambisa, zvinhu uye zvivakwa zvehofisi zvinorevesa chikamu chakakura chakafanana chemutengo wemafemu.

[10] Izvi zvinodaro nekuti pasi peiyo null inonzwisisika tarisiro modhi iruzha ruchena saka hapana zviridzwa zvinoshanda. Subjective tarisiro data inogadzirisa dambudziko iri.

[11] Chinyorwa nemhinduro chaidzo dzinowanikwa pamakero anotevera: https://voxeu.org/article/inflation-market-power-and-price-controls-igm-forum-survey https://www.igmchicago .org/surveys/inflation-market-power-and-price-controls/ Aparicio naCavallo [2021] vanoongorora seti yezvidzoreso zvemitengo pa masupamaketi eArgentina uye akawana kuti aive nemhedzisiro shoma painflation yakadzoserwa payakabviswa.

[12] Fisherian chiteshi apo deflation inokwidza mubereko chaiwo yanga isipo munguva pfupi yapfuura yakaderera mubereko. Muenzaniso wakanyanyisa wekushaikwa kwechiitiko che deflation iUnited Kingdom. Kubva muna Kukadzi 2009, Bhangi risati racheka chiyero chemusoro wenyaya kusvika pakurekodha yakaderera ye 0.5% kusvika Chikunguru 2018, nguva isati yatevera iyo mwero wepasi wakapfuura nhanho iyi, iyo Consumer Price Index yakakura paavhareji pagore ye2.55% yakawandisa. ye2% yechinangwa chakarairwa. Dhata remazinga emitengo uye shanduko yepolicy inowanikwa kubva kumasaiti pazasi, mhedzisiro yakasimba kune inonzwisisika shanduko yekufambidzana https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7bt/mm23 https://www.bankofengland .co.uk/boeapps/database/Bank-Rate.asp

[13] Chero kupokana kunogona kukanganisa Divine Coincidence, Blanchard naGalí [2007] vanoshandisa muhoro chaiwo. Hazvisi pachena kana Central Banks vane hanya kana kukwanisa kugadzirisa kukundikana kwemusika chaiwo pamusoro pezvinangwa zvavo zvekudzikamisa. Izvo zvinopokana kana aya mamwe friction ari ekutanga kurongeka pabhizinesi kutenderera frequency. Mumiriri akanakisa kusawirirana kwemari. Uku kwave kutariswa zvakanyanya kubva pakuderera kukuru kwehupfumi. Zvakadaro, kufarira kwazvino uku kwave kuchiperekedzwa nezvimwe zviridzwa (ona Clement [2010], Hanson et al. [2011], Duncan naNolan [2015], Aikman et al. [2019] uye Kashyap [2020]). Zvemari zvinonetsa zvaisave zvakakosha mukugadzirisa zvemari kuCentral Banks kare, sekureva kwaBaxa et al. [2013], Rotemberg [2013], Rotemberg [2015] uye Oet uye Lyytinen [2017]. Muchokwadi, kuvhunduka kwemari hakuratidzike kunge kwakakosha kunze kwenguva dzenhamo, kwaanoita seanoshanda seakajairika kuvhunduka (ona Mian and Sufi [2014], Muir [2017], Mian and Sufi [2018], Huber [2018] ], Gertler naGilchrist [2018], Benguria naTaylor [2020] uye Haque naMagnusson [2021]).

[14] Nzira dzakatevedzana dzenguva uye huchenjeri hwevagadziri vemitemo dzinoratidza kuti zvinotora pakati pemwedzi gumi nemisere nemakore maviri kuti shanduko yemari iite kuti iite zvakanyanya pakukwira kwemitengo. Mhedzisiro iyi inoita kunge yakasimba pane shanduko mumatongerwo enyika maererano naBernanke et al. [1999] (ona p 315-320), Batini naNelson [2001], Gerlach naSvensson [2003] uye kuongororwa kwemazuva ano naGoodhart naPradhan [2023]. Pawebhusaiti yayo Bhangi reEngland rinopa zano kuruzhinji kuti: "Monetary policy inoshanda nekurebesa kwenguva kweanenge makore maviri." (http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypolicy/Pages/overview.aspx) Zvisineyi, Bhanga rinoburitsa fungidziro makore matatu ari mberi uye rinogaro taura nezve "inflation kudzokera kune chinangwa panosvika makore matatu" zvichienderana nekuona kwenguva refu. yekudzikamisa uye empirical basa naHavranek naRusnak [2013]. (http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/inflationreport/infrep.aspx) Maitiro akafanana pane kumwe kukwira kwemitengo kunonangana neCentral Banks.